New research by 3Keel highlights climate risks and resilience measures for brewing industry
News story
16 April 2025
A new report, researched and written by 3Keel, has revealed significant climate risks facing the UK’s brewing sector. Commissioned by the British Beer & Pub Association and Zero Carbon Forum, ‘UK Brewing Sector Risk and Resilience’ looks at how temperature change, drought and flooding are likely to affect hops and barley in the coming decades. It outlines 10 climate-risk adaptation measures spanning water management, climate-resilient crops, soil health and regeneration, and the use of technology and monitoring. The report also underscores the importance of urgent collective action across the brewing sector to build supply chain resilience.
Potential for supply chain disruption, shortages and price volatility
The research includes an assessment of the potential scale of three physical climate risks on barley and hop growing in the UK – temperature change, drought and flooding. It revealed that wetter autumns and drier, hotter summers are likely to put the UK and international malting barley and hop cultivation at increasing risk of diminishing yield and quality. In key East of England barley-growing regions, summer rainfall reductions of up to 7.2% are projected by 2040, with the resulting droughts degrading malting quality. Concentrated hop growing areas in Kent and Herefordshire are exposed to risk of acute flooding in autumn as rainfall is projected to increase ~10% by 2040.
The report highlights the potential impact of domestic and global yield reductions, which could lead to price volatility and supply disruption. If barley supply becomes tight, crops are likely to be prioritised for food rather than brewing. Traditional British hop varieties, which provide vital, specific flavour profiles to brewers, could be at risk if – as the report projects – flooding increases and spring and summer become hotter.
Adaptation strategies needed now
In response to the risks identified, a key part of the project was a structured evaluation of 10 priority adaptation measures to identify which offer the best balance of feasibility and impact for farmers and the broader brewing supply chain. The evaluation considered benefits over time, cost implications, barriers to implementation and potential co-benefits for greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity and water.
The authors identified that targeted adaptation strategies at farm level are essential for ensuring long-term resilience of supply. Brewers have a direct responsibility to drive uptake by supporting farmers with financial incentives, long-term contracts and knowledge-sharing initiatives.
UK brewer collaboration crucial to mitigate risks
The report notes that urgent collective action across the British brewing sector will be required to safeguard future barley and hops supply. Seven concrete sector recommendations include: improving sourcing traceability; channelling adaptation financing to farmers; and taking a landscape approach to build resilience. Also highlighted is the critical role of government and regulatory support in key policy enablers, such as increased R&D funding and incentivisation of regenerative agriculture practices.
